Economic aspects of fuel cell drive system for passenger cars

Matthias Tonn

Abstract

The objective of investigations was market launch of fuel cell vehicles in individual traffic, needed hydrogen refuelling station infrastructure and future hydrogen costs. Within the framework of a market launch scenario for Germany, the introduction of 1.3 million fuel cell vehicles has been suggested by 2033. With the help of the learning curve analysis, the predicted course of market launch and its costs have been estimated. In order to market this new product, the fuel cell vehicle must be offered on the market with a subsidized price. The profit margin could be reached only in 2024. With the market launch of the fuel cell, hydrogen refuelling stations take on an essential role. In order to implement a hydrogen infrastructure depending on the demand, refuelling stations with decentralized hydrogen production have been observed. According to the used model and the assumptions, refuelling stations could reach the break-even point in 2032. The determined hydrogen costs vary strongly according to different electricity generation costs. Due to the growing costs of fossil energy carriers and simultaneous reduction of price of renewably generated electricity, the future could bring a clear economic advantage to the fuel cell vehicles. The results of the investigation show that the fuel cell could be successful at the market. But a disadvantage should be expected during period of the market launch. Both for cars manufactured as well as for hydrogen refuelling stations due to capital costs and uncertain fluctuations of fuel costs. This disadvantage could explain a possible resistance of stakeholders.
Diploma typeDoctor of Philosophy
Author Matthias Tonn
Matthias Tonn,,
-
Title in EnglishEconomic aspects of fuel cell drive system for passenger cars
Languageen angielski
Certifying UnitFaculty of Economic Sciences (ES)
Disciplineekonomia / nauki ekonomiczne(nauki ekonomiczne) / nauki społeczne()
Defense Date26-02-2015
Supervisor Lech Kurowski
Lech Kurowski,,
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Internal reviewers Jarosław Witkowski (EMaT / DSMaL)
Jarosław Witkowski,,
- Department of Strategic Management and Logistics
External reviewers Juliusz Kotyński
Juliusz Kotyński,,
-
Pages223
Keywords in EnglishFuel cell, passenger cars, learning curve, investment analysis, new products
Abstract in EnglishThe objective of investigations was market launch of fuel cell vehicles in individual traffic, needed hydrogen refuelling station infrastructure and future hydrogen costs. Within the framework of a market launch scenario for Germany, the introduction of 1.3 million fuel cell vehicles has been suggested by 2033. With the help of the learning curve analysis, the predicted course of market launch and its costs have been estimated. In order to market this new product, the fuel cell vehicle must be offered on the market with a subsidized price. The profit margin could be reached only in 2024. With the market launch of the fuel cell, hydrogen refuelling stations take on an essential role. In order to implement a hydrogen infrastructure depending on the demand, refuelling stations with decentralized hydrogen production have been observed. According to the used model and the assumptions, refuelling stations could reach the break-even point in 2032. The determined hydrogen costs vary strongly according to different electricity generation costs. Due to the growing costs of fossil energy carriers and simultaneous reduction of price of renewably generated electricity, the future could bring a clear economic advantage to the fuel cell vehicles. The results of the investigation show that the fuel cell could be successful at the market. But a disadvantage should be expected during period of the market launch. Both for cars manufactured as well as for hydrogen refuelling stations due to capital costs and uncertain fluctuations of fuel costs. This disadvantage could explain a possible resistance of stakeholders.
Thesis file
Tonn_M_Economic_Aspects_Of_Fuel_Cell_Drive.pdf 3,47 MB

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