Middle Income Trap. The Case of Poland

Paweł Dobrzański

Abstract

After 1990 Poland has made significant improvement in terms of economic growth. Transition from centrally planned to market economy through shock therapy has started new period in Polish history. Integration with European Union intensified the economic development. However, the progress in catching up with developed countries is nowadays slowing and there is a risk of falling into the middle-income trap. The scientific research shows that for some countries after period of accelerating growth, stagnation period is coming. This phenomenon of slowing down or stopping the process of catching up with the richest countries is called the middle income trap. The main goal of this paper is to verify if Poland can fall into the middle income trap. The paper provides a literature review regarding the middle income trap. Then economic performance of the Polish economy is evaluated. Although, GDP per capita in Poland is growing very fast, still some weaknesses can be observed. While short-term economic growth forecasts for Poland are beneficial, long-term projections support the thesis that Poland might lose its dynamic drive. The author discuss also the various factors affecting economic growth i.a. productivity, innovation level and institutional and regulatory conditions. In conclusion author emphasized that Poland needs to find new drivers of growth. This goal can be achieved by improving innovation and building global specializations of the Polish economy. The research confirm that there is a risk of falling into middle income trap for Polish economy. To avoid the middle income trap in 2016 the Council of Ministers adopted the Responsible Development Plan, which is also presented in the article. The plan is a set of tools to make the development of Poland more dynamic. The Responsible Development Plan is based on five pillars: reindustrialization; development of innovative companies; capital for development; foreign expansion; sustainable social and regional development. This research can be used by developing countries in aim to avoid the middle income trap based on polish experience
Author Paweł Dobrzański (ES / IE / DME)
Paweł Dobrzański,,
- Department of Mathematical Economics
Pages187-194
Publication size in sheets0.5
Book International Scientific Conference EMAN 2017. Economics and Management: Globalization Challenges. Conference Proceedings, 2017, Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, ISBN 978-86-80194-06-6, 1140 p.
Keywords in EnglishMiddle Income Trap, Economic Growth, Devoloping Countries
URL https://www.eman-conference.org/uploads/6/5/4/7/65475757/zbornik_radova_eman_2017_final_3.pdf
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)5
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