Integracja walutowa jako determinanta synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych w strefie euro

Jan Borowiec

Abstract

The scientific goal of the paper is to determinate the role of the monetary integration in the business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area, whereas the methodological goal is to determinate whether selection of the measure of business cycles synchronization and monetary integration significantly changes results of the research. Measures of the business cycles synchronization include: correlation of the output gap, business classical cycles concordance, similarity of macroeconomic shocks and cyclical divergence; measures of monetary integration include membership in the EMU and similarity of monetary policies. Research is based on the simple linear regression model supported by descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Result of the research suggest that monetary integration fosters the business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area. However regression results are very sensitive to selection of measures of business cycles synchronization.