A logistic law of growth as a base for methods of company’s life cycle phases forecasting

Rafał Siedlecki , Daniel Papla , Agnieszka Bem

Abstract

A logistic law of growth can be easily identified in natural sciences, social sciences, physics or technology. In economy, the logistic law of growth, expressed by a logistic law function (S-curve) can be employed to describe the processes of economic growth or a company’s cycle of life. However, according to the fact, that in almost all economic phenomena values cannot be limited, the logistic function often doesn’t fully work, mainly due to the problem of “limited growth” (expressed by an asymptote). This inconvenience can be avoided by employing the modified S-curve (loglogistic function). In this paper we present the application of the S-curve, as well as the modified S-curve in company’s life cycle forecasting. We have also proposed our own method of iterative estimation, which can be used to estimate all functions’ parameters, especially those, which cannot be converted to linear form.
Author Rafał Siedlecki (MISaF / IZF / KFP)
Rafał Siedlecki,,
- Katedra Finansów Przedsiębiorstw i Finansów Publicznych
, Daniel Papla (MISaF / IZF / DoI)
Daniel Papla,,
- Department of Insurance
, Agnieszka Bem (MISaF / IZF / KFP)
Agnieszka Bem,,
- Katedra Finansów Przedsiębiorstw i Finansów Publicznych
Journal seriesProceedings of the Romanian Academy. Series A Mathematics Physics Technical Sciences Information Science, ISSN 1454-9069, e-ISSN 1454-9069, (A 30 pkt)
Issue year2018
VolSpecial Issue
Pages141-146
Publication size in sheets0.5
Keywords in Englishconstructal law, law of growth, forecasting, business cycle, time series analysis, S-curve, modified S-curve
URL http://www.acad.ro/sectii2002/proceedings/doc2018-1s/proc_pag2018_n01s.htm
Languageen angielski
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Siedlecki_Papla_Bem_A_Logistic_law_of_growth.pdf 254,12 KB
Score (nominal)30
ScoreMinisterial score = 30.0, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 30.0, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Citations = 0; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 1.752 (2) - 2017=1.141 (5)
Citation count*5 (2020-01-17)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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