Application of S-curve and Modified S-curve in Transition Economies’ GDP Forecasting. Visegrad Four Countries Case

Rafał Siedlecki , Daniel Papla , Agnieszka Bem

Abstract

S-curve is usually used to describe economic or natural phenomena, which follow the rule of the logistic growth. In this paper we propose to use the modified S-curve, due to the “unlimited growth” phenomenon. The aim of this research is to show the application of the S-curve as well as the modified S-curve in GDP growth forecasting, using data from transition economies. This paper presents also the proposal of numerical estimation of the modified S-curve parameters. According to paper’s aims, we have posed the following research hypotheses: (H1) the S-curve and the modified S-curve are effective tools of economic development forecasting for transition economies; (H2) the modified S-curve is more efficient than ordinary S-curve in GDP forecasting for transition economies
Author Rafał Siedlecki (MISaF / IZF / KFP)
Rafał Siedlecki,,
- Katedra Finansów Przedsiębiorstw i Finansów Publicznych
, Daniel Papla (MISaF / IZF / DoI)
Daniel Papla,,
- Department of Insurance
, Agnieszka Bem (MISaF / IZF / KFP)
Agnieszka Bem,,
- Katedra Finansów Przedsiębiorstw i Finansów Publicznych
Pages91-98
Publication size in sheets0.5
Book Jajuga Krzysztof, Locarek-Junge Hermann, Orlowski Lucjan T. (eds.): Contemporary Trends and Challenges in Finance Proceedings from the 3rd Wroclaw International Conference in Finance , Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, 2018, Springer, ISBN 978-3-319-76227-2, [978-3-319-76228-9], 251 p., DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-76228-9
DOIDOI:10.1007/978-3-319-76228-9_9
URL https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-319-76228-9_9.pdf
Languageen angielski
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Siedlecki_Papla_Bem_Application_ of_ S-curve_ and_ Modified2018.pdf 207,76 KB
Score (nominal)20
Score sourcepublisherList
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