An Experimental Investigation of Lead Time and the Effect of Order Crossover

Peter Nielsen , Zbigniew Banaszak , Grzegorz Bocewicz , Zbigniew Michna


This paper presents results from an experimental investigation of lead time distributions. The focus is on the order crossover phenomenon where slower orders are overtaken by faster orders and the impact of this on the structure of the observed lead time distribution. The natural conclusion is that the likelihood of order crossover occurring strongly depends on the skewness and variance of the lead time distribution. Furthermore, the conclusion is that while lead times may be i.i.d. random variables, when crossover occurs lead times observed in the sequence orders are received are in fact mutually dependent. This has a significant impact on how supply chain members should estimate lead times and lead time distributions. That lead times are in fact mutually dependent is a major finding and has implications for both practice and academia
Author Peter Nielsen - Aalborg University
Peter Nielsen,,
, Zbigniew Banaszak - [Aalborg University]
Zbigniew Banaszak,,
- Aalborg Universitet
, Grzegorz Bocewicz - [Koszalin University of Technology]
Grzegorz Bocewicz,,
- Politechnika Koszalińska
, Zbigniew Michna (MISaF / IZM / KMiC)
Zbigniew Michna,,
- Katedra Matematyki i Cybernetyki
Publication size in sheets0.5
Book Wilimowska Zofia, Borzemski Leszek, Świątek Jerzy (eds.): Information Systems Architecture and Technology: Proceedings of 38th International Conference on Information Systems Architecture and Technology – ISAT 2017, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol. 657, 2018, Springer International Publishing, ISBN 978-3-319-67222-9, [978-3-319-67223-6], 390 p., DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-67223-6
Keywords in Englishstochastic lead times, supply chain management, bullwhip effect, order crossover
Languageen angielski
Nielsen_Banaszak_Bocewicz_Michna_An_Experimental_Investigation2018.pdf 1,84 MB
Score (nominal)20
Score sourcepublisherList
Publication indicators Scopus Citations = 2
Citation count*4 (2020-09-18)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.