Logistic Law of Growth as a Base for Method of Company
Rafał Siedlecki , Daniel Papla , Agnieszka Bem
AbstractLogistic law of growth can be easily found in natural sciences, physics and technology. In economy, logistic law of growth was expressed by Malthus, who believed, that the reason of exhaustion of natural resources, production is growing up slower then human population. A logistic law function (S-curve) is most frequently used to describe economic, company or natural phenomena. But in many economic and financial cases the logistic function doesn’t work, mainly due to “the unlimited growth” phenomenon. As we know, quantities such as economic and financial data, cannot be limited. If their value does not decrease rapidly, after the intensive growth phase, then it is followed by a slow increase. In our paper we have shown, that no matter how good is company financial situation, sooner or later some difficulties would appear. Hence, the idea of assigning the analytical form of the logistic law, based on the analysis of selected financial data. We have proposed the application of the logistic law in corporate finance, as well as the model of forecasting, using the modified S-curve (loglogistic function). We have also proposed our own method of iterative estimation, which can be used to estimate all functions’ parameters, especially those, which cannot be converted to linear form
|Publication size in sheets||0.55|
|Book||Morega Alexandru-Mihail, Lorente Sylvie (eds.): CLC 2017. Law and Second Law Conference 2017. Conference proceedings, 2017, The Publishing House of the Romanian Academy, ISBN 978-973-27-2748-5, 720 p.|
|Keywords in English||law of growth, forecasting, business cycle, time series analysis, s curve|
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