The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect – a theoretical insight

Zbigniew Michna , Peter Nielsen , Izabela Ewa Nielsen


In this article, we analyze the models quantifying the bullwhip effect in supply chains with stochastic lead times and find advantages and disadvantages of their approaches to the bullwhip problem. Moreover, using computer simulation, we find interesting insights into the bullwhip behavior for a particular instance of a multi-echelon supply chain with constant customer demands and random lead times. We confirm the recent finding of Michna and Nielsen that under certain circumstances lead time signal processing is by itself a fundamental cause of bullwhip effect just like demand-signal processing is. The simulation also shows that in this supply chain the delay parameter of demand forecasting smooths the bullwhip effect at the manufacturer level much faster than the delay parameter of lead time forecasting. Additionally, in the supply chain with random demands, the reverse behavior is observed, that is, the delay parameter of lead time forecasting smooths bullwhip effect at the retailer stage much faster than the delay parameter of demand forecasting. At the manufacturer level, the delay parameter of demand forecasting and the delay parameter of lead time forecasting dampen the effect with a similar strength.
Author Zbigniew Michna (MISaF / IZM / KMiC)
Zbigniew Michna,,
- Katedra Matematyki i Cybernetyki
, Peter Nielsen - Aalborg University
Peter Nielsen,,
, Izabela Ewa Nielsen - Aalborg University
Izabela Ewa Nielsen,,
Journal seriesProduction and Manufacturing Research, [Production and Manufacturing Research], ISSN , e-ISSN 2169-3277, (15 pkt)
Issue year2018
Publication size in sheets0.5
Keywords in Englishsupply chain, bullwhip effect, lead time demand, lead time forecasting, stochastic lead time
ASJC Classification2209 Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Languageen angielski
Michna_Nielsen_Nielsen_The_impact_of_stochastic_lead.pdf 1,41 MB
Score (nominal)15
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators Scopus Citations = 2; Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 1.273
Citation count*3 (2020-08-06)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.