Dynamics of the COVID-19 Contagion and Mortality. Country Factors, Social Media, and Market Response Evidence from a Global Panel Analysis

Piotr Staszkiewicz , Iwona Chomiak-Orsa , Igor Staszkiewicz


This research asks how an epidemic affects human behaviour. Probably the COVID-19 contagion is the most adverse global public health, economic, social, and technological stress since the Second World War. It affects almost all countries and challenges the globalisation particularly the global supply chain. The research community struggles with the multidimensional consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infections. The critical goal is to quickly implement an efficient vaccine, as the society faces a tradeoff between death exposure and the size of the economic downturn. With this paper, we search for factors affecting contagion, mortality, and the time span between the country virus inception and first death. Additionally, we analyse the development of social media and financial markets. We applied a panel data set on all of the countries across the globe from 31 December 2019 until 31 March 2020 to investigate the patterns of epidemic development. We examined 7,642 country-daily data. We constructed classification tree regression, panel, and cross-sectional regression models. Our results support the conclusion that: 1) the speed of severity and contagion is different between themselves and across continents, 2) financial markets and social media respond differently to factors affecting contagion and severity, and 3) the time span between the first contagion in the economy and first death case cannot be plausibly explained with time-invariant variables. This research supports the policymakers with robust data for the informative allocation of scarce resources.
Author Piotr Staszkiewicz - Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)
Piotr Staszkiewicz,,
, Iwona Chomiak-Orsa (BM / DBIiM)
Iwona Chomiak-Orsa,,
- Department of Business Intelligence in Management
, Igor Staszkiewicz
Igor Staszkiewicz,,
Journal seriesIEEE Access, ISSN 2169-3536, (N/A 100 pkt)
Issue year2020
Pages106009 - 106022
Publication size in sheets0.65
Keywords in EnglishCrisis Management, Economic Recession, Financial Markets, SARS-CoV-2, Social Media
ASJC Classification1700 General Computer Science; 2200 General Engineering; 2500 General Materials Science
Referenced project[17] Program doskonałości naukowo - badawczej INTEREKON . . Project leader at WUEB: Ewa Stańczyk-Hugiet, , start date 01-01-2019, end date 31-12-2022, in run
Languageen angielski
LicenseJournal (articles only); author's original; Uznanie Autorstwa (CC-BY); after publication
Staszkiewicz_Chomiak_Orsa_Staszkiewicz_Dynamics_Of_The_COVID_19_Contagion.pdf 5,67 MB
Score (nominal)100
Score sourcejournalList
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2018 = 1.718; WoS Impact Factor: 2018 = 4.098 (2) - 2018=4.54 (5)
Citation count*
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UwagaThis work was supported in part by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education in Poland under Project 015/RID/2018/192, and in part by SGH-KNOP/DB/20.
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.